Copyright© 2002 by School Services of California, Inc.

Volume 15                   For Publication Date: December 20, 2002             No. 25

 

Legislative Analyst Office—Analysis of Mid-Year Budget Proposal  

The Legislative Analyst Office (LAO) has recently completed an analysis of Governor Davis’ mid-year budget proposals. The Governor’s current year plan to address the budget shortfall facing California calls for $10.2 billion in budgetary reductions and adjustments in the current year ($3.4 billion) and budget year ($6.8 billion) combined, as an initial step towards eliminating the shortfall. In contrast to last year’s plan, which focused mainly on one-time actions such as deferrals, reversions, and funding redirections, the current plan involves major ongoing reductions to a wide variety of programs.  

The LAO’s report states that the focus on ongoing actions is a positive feature of the Governor’s proposal, in that it addresses the need for early and significant ongoing actions to address the enormous shortfall. However, the LAO points out that the current plan merits careful legislative deliberation, since it includes much more substantive proposals than last year’s, involving many program reductions and eliminations. Thus, in a very real sense, this year’s current-year proposal can be thought of as the first part of the Governor’s 2003-04 budget plans, as opposed to just a mid-year correction to the 2002-03 budget.  

The Governor’s $10.2 billion reduction plan falls into the following categories: $7.2 million in spending reductions; $2.3 billion in transfers, loans and reversions; and $0.7 billion in funding shifts. According to the LAO’s report, although the $7.2 billion in program reductions are widespread, the majority of them relate to a relatively few major proposals:  

§       Across-the-board cuts to K-14 education programs

§       Elimination of social services cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs)

§       Elimination of optional benefits and reductions in provider rates in the Medi-Cal program

§       The reductions in transportation funding  

LAO Comments on Proposition 98  

Because the Governor’s proposal would lower the Proposition 98 base, the state not only saves money in 2002-03, but also in 2003-04 and beyond. The LAO believes that, given these potential multi-year savings, the Governor’s goal of reducing 2002-03 Proposition 98 funding to the minimum guarantee is fiscally prudent. They also support the Governor’s proposals for targeted reductions, the Proposition 98 reversion account swap, and elimination of the Proposition 98 reserve fund.  

The LAO does express a concern with the $1.1 billion across-the-board reduction proposed in the December revision. Specifically, the across-the-board cuts would have an adverse impact on direct services to students and would be difficult for K-14 schools to absorb in the remaining months of the fiscal year. The across-the-board approach assumes that all existing programs have equal value. The LAO notes that the across-the-board cuts do not really provide flexibility to determine how to implement the proposed cuts. Since the Governor’s approach would require schools to continue to meet all of the program requirements of each of the categorical programs, schools would have limited ability to reduce program costs.  

LAO Alternative to Governor’s Across-the-Board Reduction  

The LAO recommends that alternatives to the Governor’s proposal should be considered by the Legislature. The LAO’s alternative approach would affect community colleges in the following manner:  

§       Reduce the COLA to the statutory rate of 1.66 percent from the budget act COLA of two percent (this option would have multi-year savings)

§       Reduce the categorical COLA to 1.66 percent (this option would have multi-year savings)

§       Cut part-time faculty extra compensation (as of February 1, 2003 ), for a potential savings of $24 million  

How do the Cuts to Community Colleges Compare with UC and CSU?  

As usual, the community colleges come out on the short end of the stick—the Governor proposes to reduce the University of California funding by $74.3 million, or 2.3 percent, and California State University funding by $59.6 million, or 2.2 percent. By contrast, community colleges are suffering a reduction of $215 million, or 4.3 percent.  

LAO Conclusion  

The LAO recognizes that the Governor’s proposal is just a first step and that tax revenue options must be considered. However, the Legislature must recognize that current calculations indicate that if state taxes were increased to help address the state’s budget shortfall and Proposition 98 was not suspended, somewhat over one-half of the first $5 billion collected annually would be required to go to Proposition 98 for funding K-14 education.

 Therefore, don’t be surprised to hear a discussion about the suspension of Proposition 98, something the Legislature will reluctantly consider. A way out for them is to make changes to special fund taxes or local revenues, which would not have Proposition 98 interaction.  

Stay tuned.

 

Arnold Bray