Copyright© 2007 by School Services of California, Inc.

                                      Volume 20                   For Publication Date: February 16, 2007             No. 4

The Perfect Storm Impacts Public Education 

In a recent study released by the Education Testing Service (ETS), greater inequity in wages and wealth and increasing social and political polarization will continue if changes are not made to our public education system. 

In the study, America’s Perfect Storm: Three Forces Changing Our Nation’s Future, ETS warns that America is in the midst of a “perfect storm” that, if not addressed, will continue to feed economic and social disparities and inequities. If not contained this storm will continue to jeopardize American Competitiveness and threaten democratic institutions. The authors of the report contend that the convergence of three forces combine to make a perfect storm for future generations of all Americans: 

§    Inadequate literacy skills among large segments of the population

§    Continuing evolution of the economy and the nation’s job structure

§    Ongoing shift in the demographic profile of the nation 

The First Force: Literacy Skills 

The first contributing factor is the wide disparity in literacy and numeric skills among schoolage and adult populations. High school graduation rates peaked at 77% in 1969, fell back to 70% in 1995, and have stayed in this range into the current decade. What is further alarming is that the graduation rate for underrepresented minorities is thought to be closer to 50%. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the United States ranked 16^th out of 21 OECD countries with respect to high school graduation rates. Large numbers of our nation’s adults (16 years of age and older) do not demonstrate sufficient literacy and numeric skills needed to fully participate in an increasingly competitive work environment. 

The Second Force: Restructuring of the U.S. Workplace 

The labor markets of today are remarkably different from those of previous decades. Employment in jobs associated with college-level education grew by some 20 million, accounting for two-thirds of the job growth. The country’s employment growth is expected to continue through the rest of this decade and into the next, with college labor market clusters expected to generate about 46% of all job growth between 2004 and 2014. Individuals with a higher level of education attainment (high school diploma), bachelor’s degree, and masters degree) have a larger earning potential if they also have good cognitive skills, indicating that both education and skills contribute to a higher earning power and more opportunities. 

The Third Force: Demographic Changes 

The U.S. population is projected to grow from 300 million in 2005 to more than 360 million in 2030. Our population will become increasingly older and more diverse, with immigration having a major impact upon the workforce. The Latino population is the largest growing immigrant population in the country. With higher birth rates, the Latino share of the population is expected to grow from 14% in 2005 to more than 20% by 2030. The lack of a high school diploma by such a large proportion of Latino immigrants if of great concern. It is a concern if almost 80% of immigrants who have not earned a high school diploma report that English is not their first language or that they do not speak English well. 

Researchers indicate that this ongoing disparity in education and the skills continuum will lead to a widening of the gap between the haves and the have-nots. If this is true, Californians, especially Latinos and Blacks, will be shut out of our economic competitiveness; income and social gaps will widen. To turn the tide or reduce the impact of the storm, national goals of equipping most adults with the ability to perform work that is highly valued in the marketplace and the capability to renew themselves as the work force evolves is needed. 

Public education must be reformed to deal with the new challenges and needs of all students. Better preparation in high school means that pupils are better prepared for the workforce and can compete at the national level. America needs to focus on the growth of human capital and how that growth is distributed. Human capital is vital to our economy. 

Today, America has a choice—continue on the present course, and lose ground, and become divided racially, socially, and economically, or invest in good policies and human capital that will allow the nation to grow together and sustain opportunities for all Americans. 

According to Kurt Landgraf, CEO and President of ETS, America’s Perfect Storm is a wake-up call, with implications for education, business, policymakers, and every parent and child. It describes forces at play in society that will affect all of us in the near future. If we fail to act now on the warnings sounded in this report, the next generation of children will be worse off than their parents for the first time in our country’s history. The American dream could turn into an American tragedy for many. 

A complete copy of the report can be found at: www.ets.org/stormreport. For questions regarding this report, please contact Tom Ewing at (609) 683-2803. 

—Jamillah Moore, Ed.D.