7-20-07 State Population to Reach Almost 60 Million by 2050

Volume 20 For Publication Date: July 20, 2007 No. 16

State Population to Reach Almost 60 Million by 2050

California’s population will reach almost 60 million by 2050, according to a report issued by the Department of Finance (DOF). This would be an increase of 57% over the state’s current population of 37.9 million, or an annual rate of growth of about 1%.

Los Angeles County would continue to be the state’s largest county with 13.1 million residents, followed by Riverside (4.7 million), San Diego (4.5 million), Orange (4.0 million) and San Bernardino (3.7 million) counties. In 2000, Riverside was the 6^th largest county in the state.

On both a percentage basis and absolute growth, Kern, San Joaquin, and Riverside counties will see major gains over the next 40 years, with each expected to grow by more than 200%.

The DOF report also forecasts the ethnic make-up of the state, which shows that Hispanics will account for the majority of Californians by 2042, reaching 52% by 2050. By mid-century, Whites will comprise 26% of all state residents, Asians 13%, African Americans 5%, with the balance made up by multi-race persons, American Indians, and Hawaiian/Pacific Islander groups.

While these changes will no doubt pose major challenges for the state, including public education, it is important to keep this forecast in perspective. For the 50-year period between 1950 and 2000, the state population increased 220%, from 10.6 million to 34.1 million. This equates to a 2.4% annual rate of increase in contrast to the 1% annual growth rate forecast through 2050.

The rapid growth following the end of World War II, fueled by both the state’s natural advantages and the wise public investments made by its leaders and citizens, has yielded the vibrant state that we enjoy today. This population forecast can provide valuable information to state and local policy makers as they craft California’s future over the next 40 years. Go to http://www.dof.ca.gov/HTML/DEMOGRAP/ReportsPapers/Projections/P1/P1.asp for a copy of the report.

—Robert Miyashiro